Public Opinion “What government officials find it prudent to heed.” (V.O. Key) Overview Basic terminology Survey Issues Mild Ideology Elements of Public Opinion Belief: factual claim about the world Attitude: evaluation--a "thing" is "bad" Ideology: philosophy (linked attitudes) about government Values: things you want (“equality" “liberty" “democracy", etc). Beliefs: We are Not Alone 9.6% of all Canadians believe they have seen UFOs (UFology Research of Manitoba 1997) 78% of Canadians believe in extraterrestrial life 57% believe there is a military or government cover-up of UFOs Attitudes: Right or Wrong? Thinking back to the Terri Shiavo case in Florida, do you think removal of Shiavo’s feeding tube was the right thing or the wrong thing to do? Right: 64% Wrong: 27% No Opinion: 8% Attitudes: Right or Wrong? Where do these things come from? Political Socialization ongoing process not tightly organized in US Party identification is typically learned early in life and changes slowly or never Family, peer groups, media, dramatic events (Great Depression, WWII, 9/11) Survey Research Sampling (representativeness through randomness) "margin of error" Closed-ended q's Question wording dangers Double-barreled q's Biased wording Framing effects Eliciting nonattitudes How Much Do Americans Know? Not much Pick any "major" law. Usually, 40% have not heard of it, 30% have no opinion. Issue Publics: little pockets of knowledgeable people who care about specific topics Ideology: Not strong Ideology definition: coherent, well linked pattern of attitudes Most Americans are not strongly ideological—weak "attitude systems" Opinions reflect long & short term forces People tend to "morselize", fit attitudes together idiosyncratically Not Completely Incoherent Rational ignorance Is information free? NO People only spend time learning when They enjoy it (entertainment, knowledge) They benefit from it (materially, socially) People could learn, but often choose not to Party ID is a "cost-saving information cue" Elite/Mass difference Elites more ideological than masses There's nothing wrong with non-ideology (elites blame citizens, but shouldn't) Search for Coherence Core beliefs widely shared Attitudes on some topics are "stable" Party identification changes slowly Recognizable Demographic & Partisan groupings: Gender, Age, Race, Class, Region, Religion Gender Gap Bush 2004: men 55%, women 48% Bush 2000: men 53%, women 43% Clinton 1996: men 43%, women 54% Clinton 1992: men 41, women 45% Reagan 1980: men 54, women 46% (http://www.cfpw.rutgers.edu) Government Government both follows and leads public opinion Policies don’t always match up with public opinion Sustained changes in public opinion tend to be reflected in public opinion