Public Opinion
“What government officials find it prudent to heed.” (V.O. Key)
Overview
 Basic terminology
 Survey Issues
 Mild Ideology

Elements of Public Opinion
 Belief: factual claim about the world
 Attitude: evaluation--a "thing" is "bad"
 Ideology: philosophy (linked attitudes) about government
 Values: things you want (“equality" “liberty" “democracy", etc).

Beliefs: We are Not Alone
 9.6% of all Canadians believe they have seen UFOs (UFology Research of Manitoba 1997)
 78% of Canadians believe in extraterrestrial life
 57% believe there is a military or government cover-up of UFOs

Attitudes: Right or Wrong?
 Thinking back to the Terri Shiavo case in Florida, do you think removal of Shiavo’s feeding tube was the right thing or the wrong thing to do? 
 Right: 64%
 Wrong: 27%
 No Opinion: 8%

Attitudes: Right or Wrong?
Where do these things come from? 
 Political Socialization
 ongoing process
 not tightly organized in US
 Party identification is typically learned early in life and changes slowly or never
 Family, peer groups, media, dramatic events (Great Depression, WWII, 9/11)

Survey Research
 Sampling (representativeness through randomness)
 "margin of error"
 Closed-ended q's

Question wording dangers 
 Double-barreled q's
 Biased wording
 Framing effects
 Eliciting nonattitudes

How Much Do Americans Know?
 Not much
 Pick any "major" law. Usually, 40% have not heard of it, 30% have no opinion.
Issue Publics: little pockets of knowledgeable people who care about specific topics 

Ideology: Not strong
 Ideology definition: coherent, well linked pattern of attitudes 

 Most Americans are not strongly ideological—weak "attitude systems"

 Opinions reflect long & short term forces
 People tend to "morselize", fit attitudes together idiosyncratically

Not Completely Incoherent

 Rational ignorance
  Is information free? NO
  People only spend time learning when
  They enjoy it (entertainment, knowledge)
  They benefit from it (materially, socially)

People could learn, but often choose not to
  Party ID is a "cost-saving information cue"


Elite/Mass difference
  Elites more ideological than masses
  There's nothing wrong with non-ideology (elites blame citizens, but shouldn't)

Search for Coherence
  Core beliefs widely shared 
  Attitudes on some topics are "stable"
  Party identification changes slowly

Recognizable Demographic & Partisan groupings: Gender, Age, Race, Class, Region, Religion

Gender Gap
Bush 2004: men 55%, women 48%
Bush 2000: men 53%, women 43%
Clinton 1996: men 43%, women 54%
Clinton 1992: men 41, women 45%
Reagan 1980: men 54, women 46%
(http://www.cfpw.rutgers.edu)

	
Government
Government both follows and leads public opinion
Policies don’t always match up with public opinion
Sustained changes in public opinion tend to be reflected in public opinion