\documentclass[border=10pt]{standalone}
%% Source: https://tex.stackexchange.com/a/406814/95014%
%% Author: "cfr"%
%% Comment: Uses forest package for tikz%%
\usepackage[utf8]{inputenc}
\usepackage[T1]{fontenc}
\usepackage{amsmath}
\usepackage{forest}
\usetikzlibrary{calc}

\tikzset{
  % Two node styles for game trees: solid and hollow
  solid node/.style={circle,draw,inner sep=1.5,fill=black},
  hollow node/.style={circle,draw,inner sep=1.5}
}
\begin{document}
\forestset{
  small_edge_label/.style 2 args={
    edge label={node[midway, font=\sffamily\scriptsize, #1]{#2}},
  },
  big_edge_label/.style 2 args={
    edge label={node[midway, font=\sffamily\normalsize, #1]{#2}},
  },
}
\tikzset{myarrow/.style={-Latex, rounded corners},}
\begin{forest}
  for tree={
    parent anchor = east,
    child anchor = west,
    grow' = east,
    l sep'+=30pt,
    s sep'+=15pt,
    for children={
      l sep+=100pt,
      %s sep+=30pt,
    }
  },
  [, hollow node, label=left:My beliefs
  [, name=n1, hollow node, small_edge_label={left}{$Pr(yes)=0.1$}
  [, name=a, solid node, small_edge_label={above,sloped}{$Pr(pos|yes)=0.6$},
  label=right:\textbf{a}]
  [,  name=b, solid node, small_edge_label={below,sloped}{$Pr(neg|yes)=0.4$},
  label=right:\textbf{b}]
  ]
  [, name=n2, hollow node, small_edge_label={left}{$Pr(no)=0.9$}
  [, name=c, solid node, small_edge_label={above,sloped}{$Pr(pos|no)=0.2$}, label=right:\textbf{c}]
  [, name=d, s=1020pt, solid node, small_edge_label={below,sloped}{$Pr(neg|no)=0.8$},
  label=right:\textbf{d}]
  ]
  ]
  \draw[-,dotted] (n1) to (n2);
  \draw[-,dotted] (a) to[out=south west, in=north west] (c);
  \draw[-,dotted] (b) to[out=south east, in=north east] (d);
\end{forest}
\end{document}